Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 24.557274 28.995115 34.447473 41.796180 51.702103 6.501046e+01 85.047208
2025-02-02 20.278598 25.704745 33.169667 44.729992 63.344758 9.476113e+01 159.673389
2025-02-09 16.583961 21.804373 29.431315 42.211448 65.175598 1.105344e+02 231.879045
2025-02-16 15.022251 20.440833 28.827576 44.040800 74.791574 1.479547e+02 430.065542
2025-02-23 13.519361 18.843475 27.430518 43.953145 80.602308 1.831445e+02 770.740449
2025-03-02 12.318736 17.507278 26.163476 43.672731 85.861516 2.241154e+02 1527.962507
2025-03-09 11.480342 16.623378 25.490657 44.347781 93.913642 2.889322e+02 4529.892811
2025-03-16 10.438918 15.269703 23.750509 42.300400 93.600784 3.203315e+02 11794.316100
2025-03-23 9.788292 14.505750 22.983486 42.227364 99.266270 3.986610e+02 402011.190735
2025-03-30 8.972637 13.375145 21.371099 39.833763 96.383034 4.204007e+02 NaN
2025-04-06 8.207333 12.272835 19.698875 37.004932 90.976829 4.161177e+02 NaN
2025-04-13 7.601156 11.409896 18.415410 34.927712 87.590015 4.258786e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 7.817802 12.062926 20.276883 41.357579 121.659984 1.074506e+03 NaN
2025-04-27 7.661819 12.016583 20.703545 44.219062 145.327710 2.298935e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 7.127006 11.208002 19.390339 41.741242 139.921904 2.512895e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 6.942517 11.053765 19.492279 43.540395 160.728370 6.321376e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 6.650701 10.666190 19.023092 43.454198 170.578974 1.409321e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 6.373612 10.286514 18.529221 43.178442 179.412542 4.346403e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 6.173434 10.044405 18.327285 43.842254 196.948098 1.393381e+07 NaN
2025-06-08 5.843563 9.520450 17.408529 41.828708 190.460536 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 5.641568 9.243287 17.055254 41.756864 201.651490 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 5.336456 8.739798 16.115592 39.401832 189.443926 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 5.025677 8.212472 15.089013 36.617210 171.949986 NaN NaN